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Will there be profits as soon as you get the indicators? Market-oriented “reshuffling”, new energy investment bids farewell to the “comfort zone” of single capacity

In recent years, global demand for clean energy has experienced exponential growth. Driven by heightened environmental awareness and growing concerns over the depletion of conventional energy resources, countries worldwide have intensified efforts to promote and adopt new energy technologies. As the new energy sector continues to expand rapidly, an increasing number of enterprises have entered the market, leading to intensifying competition. In such a highly competitive landscape, relying on a single competitive advantage is no longer sufficient for long-term sustainability. Enterprises must comprehensively strengthen their overall capabilities to distinguish themselves in the era of full marketization of new energy.

The year 2025 marked a period of profound contrasts for the new energy industry. On one hand, the comprehensive marketization of new energy has fundamentally transformed the revenue model previously based on fixed electricity pricing. Factors such as electricity price volatility and grid integration challenges have emerged as critical determinants of profitability. On the other hand, the long-term development prospects of the sector remain promising under the framework of the “dual carbon” goals. Notably, China’s recent update to its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which sets a target of 3.6 billion kilowatts of combined wind and solar installed capacity by 2035, has reinforced industry confidence. While future installed capacity is projected to grow steadily, marketization implies that investment returns are no longer guaranteed, and revenue stability has declined—raising concerns among investors.

This concern stems not only from the industry’s transition from a resource-driven to a competition-driven paradigm but also from evolving market requirements for new energy investment capability models. The previous model—where stable returns could be achieved simply by securing project approvals—has given way to a more complex, multidimensional framework requiring integrated competencies akin to a “hexagonal warrior” to build efficient power plants and secure favorable electricity prices. The industry has thus entered a new phase defined by capability-based competition.

Over the past two decades, traditional large-scale centralized power enterprises have invested substantial resources, time, and effort into safety management, production optimization, digital transformation, and power marketing, establishing sophisticated and comprehensive asset operation systems. These systems serve not only post-investment management but have also accumulated vast amounts of operational data—including actual power generation output, wind and solar resource profiles, granular electricity pricing, curtailment records, and operational cost metrics. Through analysis of equipment failure rates, these organizations have further developed valuable expertise in equipment selection and construction risk mitigation. Such accumulated data and experience provide critical insights for evaluating new investment projects. Moreover, due to their extensive portfolios within specific regions, some major investors have pioneered innovative operational models—such as provincial centralized control centers, regionally unified maintenance, and unmanned stations—to reduce operation and maintenance costs. Consequently, investors with such deeply entrenched, experience-driven capability systems possess a significant competitive edge in the marketized environment.

When comparing different investor types and their accumulated capabilities across the entire investment lifecycle, distinct pre- and post-investment capability models emerge. In a competitive market, the professional sophistication of these capabilities determines the accuracy of feasibility assessments across diverse project scenarios, influences the shape of the output-profit curve, and ultimately affects the ability to achieve robust returns and stable cash flows through skilled operations, maintenance, and market participation after commissioning. Therefore, under full marketization, building a comprehensive and differentiated capability model has become increasingly essential.

It is evident that industry vitality depends on a diversified investor base. An increasing number of financial investors, load-side entities, cross-sector entrants, and non-traditional power companies are entering the new energy space. For these participants, replicating the operational and management systems of established power giants—given constraints in time, capital, tolerance for trial-and-error, and talent development—is neither feasible nor practical. In this context, as investment concentration decreases, demand for large-scale, specialized operation and maintenance services is expected to rise. The professionalization and economies of scale in asset management will drive consolidation in the post-investment service segment. Moving forward, complementary capability frameworks and strategic inter-enterprise collaboration will become imperative for sustainable growth.


Post time: Oct-16-2025
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